According to the weather forecast page, “Weather Analysis Greece”, a cold lake will cover Greece, however the negatives are that there will be rains but not to the point where they will create problems according to three scenarios of forecasting centers.
Time: Details in the post
“As I mentioned in the previous post, this cold lake that can appear on the 8th of the month northeast of Greece, can bring some rains to Greece, or even a lot if it comes in an ideal position or nothing if it goes too far north and west or very eastern.
What he will do is unknown for the time being, since the scenarios are countless, but I will focus again on my favorite topic, how very, very small in the summary order at the beginning, bring on the scale of a country, for example, HUGE changes in the weather after a few days.
So I put here 3 different scenarios from 3 models, the European, the GFS and the GEM.
• The European brings the cold lake from the northeast to the west of Greece in the northern Ionian, in a relatively favorable position, ie for generalized rains in Greece. Indeed, here we have a cold lake that goes from the north-east of Greece, passing north of it, to the west of Greece (Ionian). This does bring a lot of rain, but because during the movement (east to west) it is dominated by northerlies and cold transport, the instability is reduced to zero and thus there are few or no storms. After all, since it will end up in the west, the southerlies that will come out “bring” some instability, but still a small one.
On the contrary, if the cold lake came from further west with an easterly motion (the classic lows from the west i.e.) and ended up there, it would be accompanied by warm transport already and would have much greater instability and strong storms and much greater rainfall, as is natural. That is why the way the cold lake ends up in the Ionian is of great importance. Anyway, even so, the rains that would fall in Greece would be many. And since, as I said, there is cold transport in this way, there would also be a lot of snow in the mountains, Grammos, Smolikas, Vasilitza, Varnoundas, Vici, Vermio, Jena, Kaimaktsalan, etc., there would be a lot of snow and even the city of Florina would fight a snowfall.
•The GFS brings the cold lake further north and ends up in Croatia, bringing some rain to Epirus and northern Ionian and that was it.
• The GEM does not even cut off a cold lake and brings nothing to Greece.
I show these in the first 3 images.
The next 6 images are the +72, +96 and +120 hour forecasts from the European model and the GEM (the GFS is like the European one and just later has the cold lake further north) where it seems that their difference of 72 hours it is very small in summary, with the European having turned the jet stream quite a bit to the southeast of Finland, while the GEM has not. Something that later on at 96 hours means that the European has cut off a cold lake while the GEM has not and certainly after 120 hours the cold lake of the European travels west giving after bad weather to Greece while of course with the GEM we would have a continuation of the current scenario with the ridge and the anticyclonic conditions.
Very small differences in the beginning, bring HUGE differences in the weather of a country later!
And these are only 3 of the possible scenarios. It also has several other general scenarios.
This is why the weather is impressive because it is very unpredictable!
Regarding the change of scenery after, around the 13th-14th of the month and beyond that is, the evidence continues and shows that there will finally be a change and the ridge monster will leave Europe, but for what scenery it will prevail is completely unknown!”
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