After a start to the year marked by exceptional mildness, where the thermometer sometimes reached 20°C in the Basque Countrythe weather scenario is changing drastically. A huge reservoir of frigid air, with temperatures dropping to -60°C in Yakutiawas formed between Scandinavia and Siberia. Numerical models now predict that this air mass could slide towards Western Europe, causing a sudden drop in temperatures in France during the last ten days of January. This situation, closely monitored by meteorologists, could well mark the true return of winter with snow phenomena.
The “Moscow-Paris” mechanism and the slowdown of the jet stream
The expected change in weather is explained by a profound modification of atmospheric circulation across the northern hemisphere. Until now, France was protected by a jet stream zonal (current from west to east) fast which brought mild Atlantic air. However, the latest analyzes show that this jet stream is starting to slow down and ripple. This deformation favors the creation of a anticyclonic blocking between the North Atlantic and Scandinavia. This blockage acts as a pump, channeling the easterly continental flow, known as “Moscow-Paris”which causes Siberian air to surge directly over France.
End of January 2026: a risk of snow confirmed for Paris and Île-de-France
Projections converge towards a period of strong instability between January 26 and February 1, 2026. For the Paris region, experts predict an average heat deficit of 1°C below seasonal normsaccompanied by a return of frequent frosts. The risk of snow becomes concrete for the capital during this time window, even if the exact intensity remains to be confirmed by the models. Météo-France. This shift in the continental flow could transform the rain into flakes from the January 25marking a clear break with the “full terraces” at the beginning of the month.
Towards dry and lasting cold in the northern half of France
According to the four-week forecast of The Weather Channelthe period from January 26 to February 1 promises to be the coldest of the month. Temperatures could drop by -1 to -3°C below usual averages. This cold will be characterized by a more “dry” aspect due to the influence of the Scandinavian anticyclone, favoring the north wind and marked morning frosts. If snowfall could remain occasional in the plains, the persistence of this continental easterly flow raises fears of a more lasting winter episode than the previous refreshments observed this year.
Vigilance and impacts: end of month under close surveillance
The potential arrival of this cold wave at the end of January 2026 requires rigorous preparation on the part of citizens and authorities. Such an episode of intense cold, combined with black ice and to the snowrisks seriously disrupting transport and traffic, particularly in Île-de-France. Authorities are already recommending checking heating systems and following health bulletins. Vigicruesbecause the cold can impact the flow of waterways. Despite global warming which makes these episodes less frequent, scientists point out that they can appear very intense over short periodshighlighting the fragility of our urban infrastructures in the face of a “simple” polar shift. Vigilance will remain required until mid-February, when a slow rainy spell is expected.