the essential The demographic growth of Toulouse is reducing the historical gap with Lyon. The city gains 6,000 inhabitants each year compared to only 500 for its Rhône rival. Is the shift to third national place imminent? Alexandre Gautier, regional director of INSEE Occitanie, responds.

Can you explain concretely why Toulouse officially remains (for INSEE) the 4th city in France?

What matters is the reference date for the official populations, set for January 1, 2023. On that date, Lyon had 519,127 inhabitants and Toulouse 514,819. The gap was therefore 4,300 inhabitants in favor of Lyon. Officially, Toulouse therefore remains fourth. But the dynamics are very different: Toulouse gains around 6,000 inhabitants per year, compared to only 500 in Lyon. The gap, which was 43,000 inhabitants ten years ago, has therefore been divided by ten in ten years.

Can an INSEE official say that today, at the start of 2026, Toulouse has probably overtaken Lyon?

He cannot say this with scientific certainty, because INSEE does not measure the population in real time. On the other hand, everything indicates that the shift is imminent.

When will Toulouse become the third city in France for state tablets?

We can do a simple calculation: if Toulouse gains 6,000 inhabitants per year and Lyon only 500, the gap of 4,300 inhabitants will be closed very quickly. By January 1, 2024, or at the latest in 2025, Toulouse will have overtaken Lyon. So the official figures published at the end of next year should confirm this.

How do you explain this gap between the date of the figures and their publication?

This is linked to the census method. In municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants, such as Toulouse, we question around 8% of the population each year. It takes five years to obtain a reliable image. The reference date corresponds to the middle of this period. For example, for surveys conducted from 2021 to 2025, the reference date is 2023. This may seem offbeat, but it is a robust method, used for twenty years. It allows you to have precise data while integrating the most recent information.

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With an increase of 1.2% per year, what are the main drivers of Toulouse’s attractiveness compared to Lyon and Marseille?

Toulouse, Lyon and Marseille share one thing in common: they are young cities, where the number of births exceeds that of deaths. This is called a natural surplus. But what sets Toulouse apart is its residential attractiveness. It gains around 2,300 inhabitants per year thanks to residential migration, while Lyon loses 3,000. The differential is therefore more than 5,300 people each year. Marseille, for example, is in an intermediate situation: it neither gains nor loses population through migration. Toulouse attracts more and more, while Lyon attracts less and less. The gap in attractiveness between the two cities has widened. There are several reasons. First, a general movement of attraction towards the South and the Atlantic coast, observed for years. Then, municipal geography plays a role: the municipality of Toulouse is almost twice as large as that of Lyon, therefore less dense, with still possibilities for urbanization. This is an asset for families looking for space. Marseille is an even larger municipality than Toulouse. Its metropolis is very extensive. Historically, Marseille has absorbed most of the neighboring municipalities. In Toulouse, the situation is different: residents can still find an individual house without leaving the town. In Toulouse, 15% of housing is houses, compared to only 2% in Lyon. This matters a lot in residential choices.

The Haute-Garonne department gains more than 18,000 inhabitants per year. What part of this growth goes to the city of Toulouse?

Toulouse has 514,819 inhabitants, and Haute-Garonne 1,471,468. Haute-Garonne is the fastest growing department in mainland France. This is explained by a natural surplus and strong attractiveness. Of the 18,000 inhabitants gained each year, around 5,900 are in the city of Toulouse, or a third. If we add the immediate periphery, we reach almost 15,000 additional inhabitants per year. In other words, the urban unit of Toulouse concentrates most of the department’s growth.

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The migration balance is positive, but 46,000 people leave the department each year: who are these residents who are leaving and why are they leaving the Toulouse area?

Yes, that’s correct according to 2022 data. These are not departures linked to a disenchantment with the territory. A large part concerns the students: many of them come to Toulouse for their studies, then leave once they graduate. Other departures concern households who settle in the periphery, as part of traditional residential pathways.