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Sebastien lucot
Posted March 25, 2025 at 7:41 p.m.
Ce recent report published by the services of Météo France is part of the Warming trajectory of reference for adaptation to climate change (TRACC), a framework requested by the state to allow Base the actions to be taken everywhere In France.
To determine Climate evolution During the next century, this scientific synthesis, that is intended educationaltarget Three deadlines taking into account A rise in average temperatures For each of them: + 2 ° C in 2030+ 2.7 ° C in 2050 and + 4 ° C in 2100of the augmentations With the reference pre -industrial periodknowing that the average warming attributed to climate change over the 2013-2022 decade is +1.7 ° C.
“A worsening of climate change”
By mutual agreement of scientists, “ l’Europe warms faster than the planetary average». This data, among many others, increasing to the supercomputers available to the French public servicetable thus on an increase of + 4 ° C by 2100.
Without giving up attenuation efforts consisting in limiting greenhouse gas emissions linked to human activities, it is necessary to prepare our companies for aggravation of climate change.
Météo-France, in its report published on March 20
With this value, the average temperature in France could thus amount to 14.2 ° C, against 10.9 ° C on theperiod 1976-2005. “It could even reach 15 ° C tips on the Parisian agglomeration which corresponds to the current climate of the Montpellier region. »»
These figures clearly evoke an average on France, with higher values, in particular in the south of the Francevery exposed to climate change, but also lower values, often reserved for areas currently subject to an oceanic regime the ribs of the Channel appearing at the top of the classification of these.
By His exposure to disturbances from The Atlantic According to the Barocline zone – a place on the terrestrial globe where the thermal variation is continuous and moderate – the Cotentin One is among the French territories which will the least undergo the effects of climate change over the long term.
Cotentin, still sheltered from peaks at 40 ° C
Thus, temperatures above 40 ° C can occur every year, and Unpublished heat peaks could reach up to 50 ° C locally, the region of Center-Val de Loire being particularly concerned.
As for the Cotentin peninsula, under the prism of this scenario at + 4 ° C, the heat record over the last 20 years in 2100 is between 38 and 40 ° C, the lowest value – Outside mountainous areas – on French territory.
The tip of the English Channel seems to avoid the worst. However, it is good to remember that The current recordthe highest temperature recorded in Cherbourg since the start of weather readings is “only” 33.7 ° C inJuly 2006.
With a scenario at + 4 ° C, intense rains will strengthen 15 % on average in France, aggravating the risk of flooding on highly waterproofed areas.
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