Storm Nils sweeps through France this Wednesday, February 11, 2026, with gusts that can exceed 160 km/h in the most exposed areas. In Marseille, the forecast calls for strong winds and intense showers until the end of the day on Thursday February 12. Météo-France has placed up to 24 departments on orange vigilance.
After storms Harry, Chandra and Leonardo, it is the turn of the depression called Nils to sweep across France. Associated with a vast low pressure area, it appears in the form of a minimum which has deepened off the Atlantic coast, with a core centered around 975 hPa. The disturbance approaches the Atlantic coast in the evening before moving towards the Gulf of Lion then Corsica.
In Marseille, the westerly wind has already strengthened this Wednesday morning with gusts reaching 65 km/h. The changeable weather brings showers in the evening, with temperatures around 14 degrees. However, it is Thursday that promises to be the busiest day for the Marseille city: “a fairly strong to strong westerly wind, with gusts to 85 km/h locally”warns Météo-France in its bulletin.
The south of the country on the front line
Météo-France services placed 18 departments on orange alert from the end of Wednesday evening, a figure which rose to 24 for the day of Thursday. The alert zone extends from Vendée to Corsica. The most violent gusts are expected in the Tramontane area and in the west of the Cévennes, where they could reach “120 to 140 km/h, even 150 to 160 km/h on the summits”according to forecasters.
On the Aquitaine coast, winds will blow between 100 and 130 km/h during the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Cap Corse is not spared: gusts of 140 to 160 km/h are expected on the eastern coast. Further south of the island, between Solenzara and Porto-Vecchio, the expected values oscillate between 110 and 130 km/h.
This storm promises to be remarkable for the Mediterranean region, just a few weeks after the passage of storm Harry which had already hit the coast. In Aude and the Pyrénées-Orientales, the gusts could enter the top 3 of record values.
Saturated soils, increased risk of flooding
Beyond the wind, the precipitation accompanying Nils worries the authorities. Accumulations of 60 to 70 mm in 24 hours are expected in the Pyrenees, while the west of the Massif Central and the north of the Alps should receive 40 to 60 mm. “In the north of New Aquitaine, we expect in two or three days the equivalent of what normally falls during the entire month of February”warn meteorologists.
The aggravating factor remains the state of the soil. After weeks of heavy rain, the vegetation and land are waterlogged. “Trees and infrastructure can thus be weakened and more vulnerable to wind”recalls Météo-France. Bouches-du-Rhône has also been placed on alert several times in recent weeks for rain-flooding and waves-submersion.
Disturbances are already being reported on roads and railways. Several homes are without electricity in the southwest. The Bouches-du-Rhône prefecture reiterates the precautionary instructions: avoid driving by the sea, close doors and windows on the seafront, do not use roads exposed to swell or already flooded.
A clear cooling is expected after the passage of the storm, with snowfall possible up to the plains from Saturday, particularly in the north-east and Île-de-France. In Marseille, vigilance remains required until Friday morning.
