Par
Briac Trébert
Posted on Sept. 11, 2025 at 5:39 p.m.
Since Thursday, September 11, 2025, sometimes stormy showers have already affected Brittany, the coast of Normandy and Hauts-de-France and the West Wind has been strengthening, therefore.
And these next hours, the accumulation of precipitation could become very substantial, in Hauts-de-France and in Normandy, “with undoubtedly up to more than 100 millimeters of rain by this Sunday, September 14”, estimates, on actu.frthe meteorologist Yann Amice, in front of the high -resolution weather models which are quite consensual on this point.
To the north, the departments of Pas-de-Calais, the Somme and the Seine-Maritime seem the most exposed to risk of floods or floods.
The cumulative rain expected until Tuesday September 14, according to the European ECMWF model (map from Weather) :
Mediterranean periphery under watershed
And from here the arrival of a new disturbancewhich will (still) bring a gale in the north-west of the country on the night of Sunday, September 14 to Monday, September 15, 2025, it is the Mediterranean periphery which should (also) be under a clove of water this Saturday, September 13. With, there too, risks of floods, with regard to the cumulative rain announced by the weather models.
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S’incrire
An intense and localized pluvio-storm episode, with cumulative rain that can exceed 150 millimeters of rain in 24 hours between Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône), Toulon and the hinterland of Var, is becoming clearer for this Saturday, September 13, 2025.
Yann Amice
Meteorologist
“This Saturday, September 13, the departments of the Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône and Var will be very exposed, with sometimes cumulative rain, over 24 hours, anticipated at more than 150 millimeters”, warns Yann Amice, which evokes, on actu.fra Mediterranean episode certainly very short, but “significant”.
What is a Mediterranean episode?
Mediterranean episodes are linked to hot, humid and unstable air feedback from the Mediterranean which can generate violent, sometimes stationary thunderstorms, like what is scheduled for this Saturday, September 13, 2025.
They perform in a privileged way in autumn (September to mid-December), when the sea is still hot, which promotes strong evaporation. “Currently, the Mediterranean Sea is still more than 24 ° C with +1.5 ° C of anomalies, and this constitutes an additional energy reservoir”, notes, on Acti.fr, the meteorologist and oceanographer Yann Amice.
Mediterranean episodes can provide intense precipitation exceeding 200 millimeters of water in one day, or 200 liters per m². In certain situations, the heights of water then reached in a few minutes can be particularly important, increasing by more than a meter!
These intense rains cause floods by runoff and by overflowing rivers, but also landslides, mudslides and torrential lavas (debris flows).
In the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, the rains may be very supported this Saturday, September 13 and accompanied by thunderstormswhile, at the same time, showers will still be present on the edge of the round, especially in Pas-de-Calais.
If the weather is expected to improve at the start of next week in the south, the north of the country should stay several days again under the influence of this parade of disturbances, sometimes rainy and windy. On the temperature side, they will go back from the south to find or go over seasonal averages on Sunday.
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